There’s a lot of noise out there about crashes and booms, but when you look at the data and forecasting models, the story for 2026 is much more grounded.
A roundup of 18 different housing market forecast models shows that existing home sales are expected to increase modestly in 2026. Not a surge, not a collapse, just steady, incremental improvement as the market continues to normalize.
Most forecasts point to total U.S. existing home sales landing just over 4 million transactions in 2026. That’s slightly higher than recent years, but still below long-term historical averages. Translation: demand is coming back, but it’s measured and disciplined.
Mortgage Rates and Affordability
Mortgage rates are expected to ease somewhat in 2026, with most projections clustering in the low-6% range. That alone won’t magically fix affordability, but it does take pressure off buyers who have been stuck on the sidelines.
Home Prices and Buyer Seller Balance
Home prices are also expected to continue rising, though at a much slower pace. Most forecasts call for low-single-digit appreciation. This creates a more balanced environment where buyers have negotiating power and sellers still retain equity.
Inventory is projected to increase as well, giving buyers more options and reducing the frantic competition of prior years. Even with those gains, supply is still expected to remain below pre-pandemic norms.
The big takeaway is simple: sales in 2026 aren’t expected to explode, but they are expected to move higher. For those who prepare now, that steady uptick creates real opportunity.
