Home Price Growth Is Slowing to a Crawl
As of late July 2025, the median U.S. asking price rose just 2.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase since mid-2023. Similarly, the median sale price hit an all-time high near $399,000, but growth was only 1.6% YoY. This cooling signals a transition out of hyper-competitive territory — price hikes are tapering off, giving buyers more room to negotiate.
Buyers Are Gaining Leverage
Active listings in May reached a five-year high, and though June’s supply dipped slightly, inventory remains 13–16% above last year’s level. Sellers outnumber buyers by roughly half a million. Fewer homes are selling above list price, and the average sale-to-list ratio is around 99%, signaling increased buyer-friendly conditions.
Mortgage Payments Are Starting to Fall
The typical U.S. monthly housing cost dropped to about $2,679, its lowest level in five months, even with rates holding around 6.7%. Slowing price growth is pushing overall housing costs down.
Sellers Are Offering More Concessions
Nearly 44% of homes sold in Q1 2025 included seller concessions-such as covering closing costs, repair credits, or rate buydowns-up from 39.3% in 2024. In softer metro markets, concessions and price cuts are increasingly common.
Economists Expect Prices to Fall by Year-End
Redfin economists forecast a modest annual home price decline (~1%) by end of 2025. However, if you wait too long while listings dry up, negotiating power could swing back to sellers by late 2025.
TL;DR – Why Now Might Be Smart
Slowest price growth: Buyers have room to negotiate
High inventory/supply: Better selection and leverage
Falling mortgage costs: Payments cooling off
Seller concessions rising: Increased incentives
Predictions favor buyers: Entering early gives control
How to Make the Most of It
– Get pre-approved to act fast.
– Look for listings on market 30+ days.
– Ask about seller concessions.
– Consider overlooked segments like condos.
– Lock mortgage rates during dips.
Final Thoughts
If you’ve been waiting out the frenzy of 2020–2024, the current market may feel like a welcome shift back toward fairness. While home prices are still high by historical standards, growth has slowed dramatically — and buyer demand remains subdued. With record inventory, increasing seller flexibility, and lower monthly payments, now may offer a narrow but real window of opportunity.
